TL;DR: A fucking disaster for everybody except Oracle and Sun's execs and (maybe) shareholders. i.e. The Kakistocracy wins and the rest of us get shafted. (As usual.)
I think Oracle are getting an absolute bargain. $7.4 billion is chump-change for the IP they're acquiring. The question is, Which pieces are they going to keep, and which are toast? Some of this is blatantly obvious, other bits are pure crystal-ball-gazing on my part.
Java: the no-brainer. Oracle are heavily invested in Java for the Enterprise stack. Bad news for open-source Java? Maybe! Or maybe not... it all depends on whether Oracle were backing Apache simply as a tactic against Sun in the JCP. I've heard a number comments along the lines of "it's GPL -- the boat has sailed". They're forgetting that the owner of the IP can do as they please, including closing the source completely in the next release. (Not that I think it very likely; just a possibility.) Yes, an open-source community might be able to follow, but I'm betting that there would be compatibility problems.
MySQL: Toast. (Personally I never bought the logic behind Sun acquiring MySQL, and then they went and mishandled the whole thing badly.)
Glassfish: More toast. What will this be... Oracles fourth appserver? I lose count.
Netbeans: A cold shaft of ice pierces my gut. I love Netbeans. I just don't much like its competitor (just a personal preference; don't read too much into it!) But I fear that this might be the end of the road for NB... OTOH it can -- unlike so many of Sun's other open-source projects -- probably survive, nay flourish, as a standalone open-source IDE. After all, that where it came from in the first place.
OpenOffice.org: Makes perfect sense for Oracle. I bet on them keeping this one going. In fact, this might be the Secret Weapon Acquisition... the knife with which Oracle goes seriously for Microsoft's jugular in the Enterprise space, together with Solaris and the Sun hardware.
Solaris: I'm betting it stays. Oracle's strategy has been (to the limited extent I bother to keep track) to lock up the mission-critical, "hard-to-do" stuff in the Enterprise space. And there's still a whole lot of stuff that Solaris does way better than Linux.
VirtualBox: also plays well into the Enterprise/datacentre "integrated offering" strategy.
JavaFX: not one I'm capable of guessing about... any offers?
And the Sun hardware: makes pretty good sense for Oracle, in my limited understanding.
On a more personal note, much closer to home: How likely is it that Oracle will retain Sun's training programs for Java? Methinks it unlikely, since they already have their own training programs. What does that mean for the first Sun-authorised Java trainer in Africa?
Not good news at all, I'll bet!
All-in-all I think the acquisition is terrible news for Sun people, and probably not good news for their customers, either. I am finding it hard to see it in a good light for Java, either, and, having (literally) bet the farm on Java for the past 13 years, find the prospects quite discouraging. And for open-source in general it's a disaster. Despite the Slashdot whiners, Sun has sunk an incredible amount of money and effort into open-source projects, and I simply don't believe that Oracle has the same largeness of vision.
Oh well. Shit happens. I suppose its still a step better than Sun going under completely... Best I get a move-on with further developing my own training material and courseware.